Proto Labs Inc (PRLB)
Proto Labs, Inc., is an e-commerce-driven digital manufacturer of custom prototypes and on-demand production parts around the world. The company is headquartered in Maple Plain, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.87% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $34.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.25% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.77 (5.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRLB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.9412
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1183
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1183) – 1
= 60.50%
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9412 + 0.0003 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.1183)
= Exp(3.5737)
= $35.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9412 + 0.0003 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.1183)
= Exp(3.1006)
= $22.21
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9412 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1183)
= Exp(3.7826)
= $43.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9412 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1183)
= Exp(3.3095)
= $27.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.87% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $34.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.1444
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.04%
November 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1444 + -0.0009 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(3.7386)
= $42.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1444 + -0.0009 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(3.5643)
= $35.31
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1444 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(3.5025)
= $33.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1444 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(3.3282)
= $27.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.25% per annum.
- PRLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.77 (5.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.