ESCO Technologies Inc (ESE)
ESCO Technologies Inc. produces and supplies products and systems designed for the industrial and commercial markets worldwide. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.61% per annum.
- ESE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $109.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.32 (2.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.24% per annum.
- ESE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ESE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2022
End date: January 4, 2024
a = 3.3953
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0650
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0650) – 1
= 29.68%
February 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y688)
= Exp(a + b × X688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3953 + 0.0008 × 996 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(4.3158)
= $74.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y688)
= Exp(a + b × X688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3953 + 0.0008 × 996 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(4.0559)
= $57.74
January 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3953 + 0.0008 × 1,690 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(4.8666)
= $129.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3953 + 0.0008 × 1,690 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(4.6067)
= $100.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.61% per annum.
- ESE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $109.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.32 (2.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.1048
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0422
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.39%
November 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1048 + 0.0003 × 1,267 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.5901)
= $98.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1048 + 0.0003 × 1,267 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.4213)
= $83.21
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1048 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.7664)
= $117.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1048 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.5976)
= $99.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.24% per annum.
- ESE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.