Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinated financings, and other real estate-related commercial debt investments in the United States. . The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.27% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $10.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.96 (22.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.23% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023
a = 2.5353
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0826
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0826) – 1
= 39.15%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5353 + -0.0003 × 591 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(2.5250)
= $12.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5353 + -0.0003 × 591 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(2.1946)
= $8.98
June 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5353 + -0.0003 × 1,410 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(2.2819)
= $9.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5353 + -0.0003 × 1,410 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(1.9515)
= $7.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.27% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $10.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.96 (22.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.8514
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0850
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0850) – 1
= 40.51%
April 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8514 + 0.0003 × 1,008 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(2.2904)
= $9.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8514 + 0.0003 × 1,008 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(1.9503)
= $7.03
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8514 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(2.5087)
= $12.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8514 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(2.1686)
= $8.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.23% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.