PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, a specialty finance company, invests primarily in mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.38% per annum.
- PMT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $13.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.50% per annum.
- PMT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 1.3600
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0630
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0630) – 1
= 28.67%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3600 + 0.0007 × 1,317 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(2.4432)
= $11.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3600 + 0.0007 × 1,317 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(2.1911)
= $8.95
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3600 + 0.0007 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(2.8095)
= $16.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3600 + 0.0007 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(2.5574)
= $12.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.38% per annum.
- PMT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $13.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.5889
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0363
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0363) – 1
= 15.63%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5889 + 0.0000 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(2.6833)
= $14.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5889 + 0.0000 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(2.5381)
= $12.66
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5889 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(2.6866)
= $14.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5889 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(2.5413)
= $12.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.50% per annum.
- PMT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.