ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)
ARMOR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.03% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was $15.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.23 (12.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.77% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: March 25, 2025
a = 1.9870
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0657
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0657) – 1
= 30.07%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0005 × 1,105 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(2.7211)
= $15.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0005 × 1,105 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(2.4582)
= $11.68
March 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0005 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.0189)
= $20.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0005 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(2.7560)
= $15.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.03% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was $15.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.23 (12.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2024
End date: September 15, 2025
a = 3.2831
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.50%
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2831 + -0.0003 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.9455)
= $19.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2831 + -0.0003 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.7508)
= $15.65
September 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2831 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.8106)
= $16.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2831 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.6159)
= $13.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.77% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.