ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)
ARMOR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.04% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $20.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.64% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.4600
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 19.99%
November 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4600 + 0.0008 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(2.8674)
= $17.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4600 + 0.0008 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(2.6851)
= $14.66
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4600 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(3.0908)
= $22.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4600 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(2.9086)
= $18.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.04% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $20.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -0.0661
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0248
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0248) – 1
= 10.43%
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0661 + 0.0017 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(2.9071)
= $18.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0661 + 0.0017 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(2.8080)
= $16.58
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0661 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(3.0783)
= $21.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0661 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(2.9791)
= $19.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.64% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.