Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)
Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) is a leading finance company based in Mill Valley, California, that focuses on investing in, financing, and managing residential and commercial mortgage assets. With a robust platform that leverages its expertise in mortgage finance, Redwood Trust is committed to providing innovative solutions to meet the needs of homeowners and investors alike. The company's strong operational framework and strategic partnerships position it effectively in the capital markets, facilitating access to diverse funding sources and maximizing asset performance. As a prominent player in the mortgage REIT sector, Redwood Trust is dedicated to delivering sustainable returns to its shareholders while navigating the complexities of the ever-evolving real estate landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.12% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $5.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.19 (3.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.76% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RWT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 1.5133
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0910
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0910) – 1
= 43.93%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5133 + 0.0002 × 574 + 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(1.8035)
= $6.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5133 + 0.0002 × 574 – 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(1.4394)
= $4.22
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5133 + 0.0002 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(1.9965)
= $7.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5133 + 0.0002 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(1.6323)
= $5.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.12% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $5.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.19 (3.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: June 25, 2025
a = 2.8574
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0495
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0495) – 1
= 21.91%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8574 + -0.0007 × 1,334 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(2.0124)
= $7.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8574 + -0.0007 × 1,334 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(1.8143)
= $6.14
June 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8574 + -0.0007 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(1.7661)
= $5.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8574 + -0.0007 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(1.5680)
= $4.80
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.76% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.