Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a leading American multinational corporation that specializes in the design, manufacture, and marketing of construction and mining equipment, engines, and related financial products and services. As a Fortune 100 company, Caterpillar has established a robust global presence, supported by an extensive dealer network that enhances its ability to serve a diverse range of industries, including construction, agriculture, and energy. With a strong commitment to innovation and sustainability, Caterpillar continues to leverage advanced technologies to improve efficiency and productivity while addressing environmental challenges in its product offerings.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 178.18% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of March 20, 2026 was $680.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.71 (4.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.29% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of March 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: March 5, 2026
a = 1.5472
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0427
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 178.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.63%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5472 + 0.0028 × 1,473 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(5.7615)
= $317.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5472 + 0.0028 × 1,473 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(5.5906)
= $267.91
March 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5472 + 0.0028 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(6.7033)
= $815.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5472 + 0.0028 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(6.5325)
= $687.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 178.18% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of March 20, 2026 was $680.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.71 (4.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2026
End date: March 20, 2026
a = 12.9441
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0185) – 1
= 7.67%
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9441 + -0.0035 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(6.6974)
= $810.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9441 + -0.0035 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(6.6234)
= $752.53
March 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9441 + -0.0035 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(6.5673)
= $711.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9441 + -0.0035 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(6.4933)
= $660.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.29% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of March 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.