Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. (often shortened to CAT) is an American Fortune 100 corporation that designs, develops, engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells machinery, engines, financial products, and insurance to customers via a worldwide dealer network.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.57% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $344.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.50% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1680
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0867
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0867) – 1
= 41.45%
June 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0009 × 1,056 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.3266)
= $205.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0009 × 1,056 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.45
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(6.0450)
= $422.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.6983)
= $298.35
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.57% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $344.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.1345
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.28%
March 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1345 + -0.0007 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.9557)
= $385.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1345 + -0.0007 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.8222)
= $337.71
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1345 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.8610)
= $351.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1345 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.7275)
= $307.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.50% per annum.
- CAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.