Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)
Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures and markets specialty vehicles and bodies worldwide. The company is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.62% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $113.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.24 (3.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.82% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.19 (5.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 2.8028
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0576
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.89%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8028 + 0.0011 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.4266)
= $83.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8028 + 0.0011 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.1963)
= $66.44
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8028 + 0.0011 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.9295)
= $138.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8028 + 0.0011 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.6992)
= $109.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.62% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $113.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.24 (3.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2024
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 7.6017
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0250) – 1
= 10.50%
March 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6017 + -0.0016 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.8825)
= $131.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6017 + -0.0016 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.7827)
= $119.42
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6017 + -0.0016 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.6984)
= $109.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6017 + -0.0016 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.5986)
= $99.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.82% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.19 (5.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.