PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
PACCAR Inc is an American Fortune 500 company and counts among the largest manufacturers of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the world. PACCAR is engaged in the design, manufacture and customer support of light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, Leyland Trucks, and DAF nameplates. PACCAR also designs and manufactures powertrains, provides financial services and information technology, and distributes truck parts related to its principal business.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.78% per annum.
- PCAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $97.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.97 (8.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.26% per annum.
- PCAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2022
End date: June 20, 2024
a = 2.7645
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0584
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0584) – 1
= 26.30%
April 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y678)
= Exp(a + b × X678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 983 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7645 + 0.0011 × 983 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(3.9692)
= $52.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y678)
= Exp(a + b × X678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 983 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7645 + 0.0011 × 983 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(3.7357)
= $41.92
June 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7645 + 0.0011 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.8636)
= $129.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7645 + 0.0011 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.6301)
= $102.52
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.78% per annum.
- PCAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $97.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.97 (8.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 7.3422
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0288
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0288) – 1
= 12.22%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3422 + -0.0015 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(4.8539)
= $128.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3422 + -0.0015 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(4.7387)
= $114.28
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3422 + -0.0015 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(4.6673)
= $106.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3422 + -0.0015 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(4.5521)
= $94.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.26% per annum.
- PCAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.