Terex Corporation (TEX)
Terex Corporation manufactures and sells aerial work platforms and materials processing machinery worldwide. The company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.16% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $59.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.50 (13.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.25% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: September 29, 2023
a = 1.8507
b = 0.0014
s = 0.1090
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1090) – 1
= 54.63%
April 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8507 + 0.0014 × 1,062 + 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(3.5810)
= $35.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8507 + 0.0014 × 1,062 – 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(3.1451)
= $23.22
September 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8507 + 0.0014 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(4.3528)
= $77.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8507 + 0.0014 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(3.9169)
= $50.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.16% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $59.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.50 (13.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.1119
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0937
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0937) – 1
= 45.46%
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1119 + 0.0006 × 1,275 + 2 × 0.0937)
= Exp(4.0009)
= $54.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1119 + 0.0006 × 1,275 – 2 × 0.0937)
= Exp(3.6262)
= $37.57
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1119 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0937)
= Exp(4.3041)
= $74.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1119 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0937)
= Exp(3.9294)
= $50.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.25% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.