Terex Corporation (TEX)
Terex Corporation manufactures and sells aerial work platforms and materials processing machinery worldwide. The company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.52% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $66.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.33 (105.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.50% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2020
End date: October 28, 2022
a = 4.0511
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1352) – 1
= 71.76%
December 4, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 494 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0511 + -0.0005 × 494 + 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(4.0934)
= $59.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 494 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0511 + -0.0005 × 494 – 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(3.5525)
= $34.90
October 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0511 + -0.0005 × 1,187 + 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(3.7732)
= $43.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0511 + -0.0005 × 1,187 – 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(3.2323)
= $25.34
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.52% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $66.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.33 (105.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: June 11, 2024
a = 2.6116
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1248
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1248) – 1
= 64.76%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6116 + 0.0009 × 946 + 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(3.7053)
= $40.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6116 + 0.0009 × 946 – 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(3.2060)
= $24.68
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6116 + 0.0009 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(4.4486)
= $85.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6116 + 0.0009 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(3.9493)
= $51.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.50% per annum.
- TEX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.