Copart Inc (CPRT)
Copart, Inc. or simply Copart is a global provider of online vehicle auction and remarketing services to automotive resellers such as insurance, rental car, fleet and finance companies in 11 countries: the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, Ireland, Brazil, Spain, Dubai, Bahrain, Oman and Finland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.38% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $50.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.18 (7.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.61% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.35 (0.69%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 2.1829
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0614
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.85%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1829 + 0.0011 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.3832)
= $29.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1829 + 0.0011 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.1375)
= $23.05
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1829 + 0.0011 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.1801)
= $65.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1829 + 0.0011 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.9344)
= $51.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.38% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $50.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.18 (7.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.8175
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0204
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0204) – 1
= 8.50%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8175 + -0.0005 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(4.0742)
= $58.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8175 + -0.0005 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(3.9926)
= $54.20
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8175 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(4.0091)
= $55.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8175 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(3.9275)
= $50.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.61% per annum.
- CPRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.35 (0.69%).