Stock Price Trends

CoreCivic Inc (CXW)

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) is a leading provider of correctional and detention services in the United States, specializing in the management and operation of partnership-driven facilities, including correctional institutions and residential reentry centers. Headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, the company plays a crucial role in the criminal justice system by delivering innovative solutions to reduce recidivism while ensuring safe and secure environments. With a focus on quality and efficiency, CoreCivic aims to maximize operational effectiveness through strategic partnerships and community engagement.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.05% per annum.
  • CXW price at the close of December 16, 2025 was $19.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 454.59% per annum.
  • CXW price at the close of December 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CXW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 11, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 4.7370

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0450

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.73%

April 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7370 + -0.0010 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(3.2217)
= $25.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7370 + -0.0010 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(3.0416)
= $20.94

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7370 + -0.0010 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(2.9721)
= $19.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7370 + -0.0010 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(2.7920)
= $16.31

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.05% per annum.
  • CXW price at the close of December 16, 2025 was $19.02 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 19, 2025
End date: December 16, 2025

a = -5.6029

b = 0.0047

s = 0.0140

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 454.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0140) – 1
= 5.75%

November 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6029 + 0.0047 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(2.8636)
= $17.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6029 + 0.0047 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(2.8078)
= $16.57

December 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6029 + 0.0047 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(2.9904)
= $19.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6029 + 0.0047 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(2.9345)
= $18.81

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 454.59% per annum.
  • CXW price at the close of December 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.