# CoreCivic Inc (CXW)

CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.34% per annum.
- CXW price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $14.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 59.67% per annum.
- CXW price at the close of July 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of CXW price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: September 18, 2020

End date: July 19, 2024

a = 1.8687

b = 0.0004

s = 0.1413

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1

= 16.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1413) – 1

= 75.97%

#### September 18, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{294})

= Exp(a + b × X_{294} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.8687 + 0.0004 × 424 + 2 × 0.1413)

= Exp(2.3271)

= $10.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{294})

= Exp(a + b × X_{294} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.8687 + 0.0004 × 424 – 2 × 0.1413)

= Exp(1.7620)

= $5.82

#### July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.8687 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1413)

= Exp(2.9076)

= $18.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.8687 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1413)

= Exp(2.3425)

= $10.41

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.34% per annum.
- CXW price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $14.44 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2023

End date: July 19, 2024

a = 0.4611

b = 0.0013

s = 0.1023

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1

= 59.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1023) – 1

= 50.55%

#### March 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{915})

= Exp(a + b × X_{915} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,326 + 2 × s)

= Exp(0.4611 + 0.0013 × 1,326 + 2 × 0.1023)

= Exp(2.3657)

= $10.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{915})

= Exp(a + b × X_{915} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,326 – 2 × s)

= Exp(0.4611 + 0.0013 × 1,326 – 2 × 0.1023)

= Exp(1.9566)

= $7.08

#### July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(0.4611 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1023)

= Exp(3.0042)

= $20.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(0.4611 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1023)

= Exp(2.5951)

= $13.40

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 59.67% per annum.
- CXW price at the close of July 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.