LCI Industries (LCII)
LCI Industries manufactures and supplies components to recreational vehicle (RV) manufacturers and adjacent industries in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Elkhart, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.79% per annum.
- LCII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $112.92 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.43 (8.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.09% per annum.
- LCII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LCII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2020
End date: June 1, 2023
a = 5.0283
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0961
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0961) – 1
= 46.84%
November 20, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0003 × 483 + 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(5.0693)
= $159.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0003 × 483 – 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.6851)
= $108.32
June 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0003 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.7805)
= $119.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0283 + -0.0003 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.3963)
= $81.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.79% per annum.
- LCII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $112.92 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.43 (8.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2022
End date: June 6, 2024
a = 4.5014
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0854
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0854) – 1
= 40.71%
January 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5014 + 0.0001 × 910 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.7959)
= $121.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5014 + 0.0001 × 910 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.4543)
= $86.00
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5014 + 0.0001 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.9138)
= $136.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5014 + 0.0001 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.5722)
= $96.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.09% per annum.
- LCII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.