Standard Motor Products Inc (SMP)
Standard Motor Products, Inc. manufactures and distributes motor vehicle replacement parts to the automotive aftermarket industry. The company is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 233.60% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of August 25, 2025 was $38.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 156.08% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of August 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: August 25, 2025
a = -2.3916
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 233.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.80%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3916 + 0.0033 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.2519)
= $25.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3916 + 0.0033 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.0224)
= $20.54
August 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3916 + 0.0033 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.7470)
= $42.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3916 + 0.0033 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.5175)
= $33.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 233.60% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of August 25, 2025 was $38.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2025
End date: August 25, 2025
a = -1.0993
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 156.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.10%
April 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0993 + 0.0026 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.3925)
= $29.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0993 + 0.0026 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.2093)
= $24.76
August 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0993 + 0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.6939)
= $40.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0993 + 0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.5108)
= $33.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 156.08% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of August 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.