Standard Motor Products Inc (SMP)
Standard Motor Products, Inc. manufactures and distributes motor vehicle replacement parts to the automotive aftermarket industry. The company is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.05% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $23.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.15 (0.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 864.65% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 21, 2025
a = 10.6765
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0378
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.31%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6765 + -0.0042 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(3.5722)
= $35.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6765 + -0.0042 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(3.4211)
= $30.60
April 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6765 + -0.0042 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(3.1982)
= $24.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.6765 + -0.0042 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(3.0471)
= $21.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.05% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $23.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.15 (0.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = -8.1209
b = 0.0062
s = 0.0135
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0062) – 1
= 864.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0135) – 1
= 5.53%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.1209 + 0.0062 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(3.1272)
= $22.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.1209 + 0.0062 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(3.0734)
= $21.62
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.1209 + 0.0062 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(3.2204)
= $25.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.1209 + 0.0062 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(3.1666)
= $23.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 864.65% per annum.
- SMP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.