Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.39% per annum.
- PATK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $78.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.20 (12.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.18% per annum.
- PATK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PATK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 2.4858
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0950
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0950) – 1
= 46.25%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4858 + 0.0012 × 772 + 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(3.6081)
= $36.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4858 + 0.0012 × 772 – 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(3.2279)
= $25.23
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4858 + 0.0012 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(4.8120)
= $122.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4858 + 0.0012 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(4.4319)
= $84.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.39% per annum.
- PATK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $78.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.20 (12.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.7121
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0255
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0255) – 1
= 10.72%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7121 + -0.0024 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.6355)
= $103.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7121 + -0.0024 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.5337)
= $93.10
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7121 + -0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.4038)
= $81.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7121 + -0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(4.3020)
= $73.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.18% per annum.
- PATK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.