ModivCare Inc (MODV)
ModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare company, offers a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private patients and payers. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.82% per annum.
- MODV price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $26.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.51% per annum.
- MODV price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MODV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2021
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 6.7191
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1912
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1912) – 1
= 114.88%
June 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y521)
= Exp(a + b × X521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7191 + -0.0018 × 756 + 2 × 0.1912)
= Exp(5.7142)
= $303.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y521)
= Exp(a + b × X521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7191 + -0.0018 × 756 – 2 × 0.1912)
= Exp(4.9492)
= $141.07
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7191 + -0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1912)
= Exp(3.7505)
= $42.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7191 + -0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1912)
= Exp(2.9856)
= $19.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.82% per annum.
- MODV price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $26.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2022
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 7.7269
b = -0.0025
s = 0.1910
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1910) – 1
= 114.71%
August 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7269 + -0.0025 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.1910)
= Exp(5.1811)
= $177.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7269 + -0.0025 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.1910)
= Exp(4.4170)
= $82.85
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7269 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1910)
= Exp(3.5859)
= $36.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7269 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1910)
= Exp(2.8218)
= $16.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.51% per annum.
- MODV price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.