Stock Price Trends

TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)

TXNM Energy, Inc., provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.83% per annum.
  • TXNM price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $52.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.98% per annum.
  • TXNM price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 1.9060

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0337

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0337) – 1
= 14.44%

March 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9060 + 0.0011 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(3.5809)
= $35.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9060 + 0.0011 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(3.4461)
= $31.38

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9060 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.0615)
= $58.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9060 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(3.9266)
= $50.74

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.83% per annum.
  • TXNM price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $52.93 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 15, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 2.5113

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%

November 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5113 + 0.0008 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.8957)
= $49.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5113 + 0.0008 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.7748)
= $43.59

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5113 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.0344)
= $56.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5113 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.9134)
= $50.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.98% per annum.
  • TXNM price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.