Stock Price Trends

Eversource Energy (ES)

Eversource Energy is a publicly traded, Fortune 500 energy company headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut, and Boston, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.17% per annum.
  • ES price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $62.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.03 (1.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.98% per annum.
  • ES price at the close of May 7, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.44 (11.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 3.3208

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0460

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.22%

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3208 + 0.0005 × 1,236 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.0351)
= $56.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3208 + 0.0005 × 1,236 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.8509)
= $47.04

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3208 + 0.0005 × 1,669 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.2530)
= $70.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3208 + 0.0005 × 1,669 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.0689)
= $58.49

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.17% per annum.
  • ES price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $62.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.03 (1.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: February 7, 2025

a = 5.4622

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0318

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.57%

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4622 + -0.0008 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.2574)
= $70.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4622 + -0.0008 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.1302)
= $62.19

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4622 + -0.0008 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.0951)
= $60.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4622 + -0.0008 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.9678)
= $52.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.98% per annum.
  • ES price at the close of May 7, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.44 (11.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.