Eversource Energy (ES)
Eversource Energy is a publicly traded, Fortune 500 energy company headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut, and Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.44% per annum.
- ES price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $63.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.34 (9.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.82% per annum.
- ES price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2022
End date: April 18, 2024
a = 5.0781
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0653
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0653) – 1
= 29.87%
March 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0781 + -0.0006 × 973 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.5993)
= $99.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0781 + -0.0006 × 973 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.3379)
= $76.55
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0781 + -0.0006 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.1264)
= $61.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0781 + -0.0006 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(3.8650)
= $47.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.44% per annum.
- ES price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $63.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.34 (9.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.4927
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.35%
September 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4927 + 0.0003 × 1,524 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.0804)
= $59.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4927 + 0.0003 × 1,524 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.9120)
= $50.00
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4927 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.1802)
= $65.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4927 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.0118)
= $55.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.82% per annum.
- ES price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.