Southern Company (SO)
Southern Company is an American gas and electric utility holding company based in the southern United States. It is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, with executive offices also located in Birmingham, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.76% per annum.
- SO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $92.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.05 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.38% per annum.
- SO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.60 (6.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: December 5, 2024
a = 3.1239
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.16%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1239 + 0.0008 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.1817)
= $65.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1239 + 0.0008 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.9980)
= $54.49
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1239 + 0.0008 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.5821)
= $97.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1239 + 0.0008 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.3985)
= $81.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.76% per annum.
- SO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $92.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.05 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 4.8950
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0289
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0289) – 1
= 12.28%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8950 + -0.0003 × 1,546 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.5356)
= $93.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8950 + -0.0003 × 1,546 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.4198)
= $83.08
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8950 + -0.0003 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.4811)
= $88.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8950 + -0.0003 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.3653)
= $78.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.38% per annum.
- SO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.60 (6.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.