Vistra Energy Corp (VST)
Vistra Corp. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 196.78% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 7, 2025 was $191.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $69.14 (26.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.98% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 30, 2022
End date: February 26, 2025
a = 0.4367
b = 0.0030
s = 0.1558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 196.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1558) – 1
= 86.47%
December 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y539)
= Exp(a + b × X539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4367 + 0.0030 × 781 + 2 × 0.1558)
= Exp(3.0759)
= $21.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y539)
= Exp(a + b × X539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4367 + 0.0030 × 781 – 2 × 0.1558)
= Exp(2.4528)
= $11.62
February 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4367 + 0.0030 × 1,570 + 2 × 0.1558)
= Exp(5.4273)
= $227.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4367 + 0.0030 × 1,570 – 2 × 0.1558)
= Exp(4.8042)
= $122.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 196.78% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 7, 2025 was $191.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $69.14 (26.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 20, 2025
End date: November 7, 2025
a = 4.8694
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.36%
June 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8694 + 0.0002 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.3506)
= $210.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8694 + 0.0002 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.1820)
= $178.04
November 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8694 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.3836)
= $217.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8694 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(5.2150)
= $184.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.98% per annum.
- VST price at the close of November 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.