Vistra Energy Corp (VST)
Vistra Corp. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 197.30% per annum.
- VST price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $139.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.59 (7.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.07% per annum.
- VST price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 3, 2023
End date: February 26, 2025
a = -0.1196
b = 0.0030
s = 0.1552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 197.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1552) – 1
= 86.07%
January 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1196 + 0.0030 × 970 + 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(3.0865)
= $21.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1196 + 0.0030 × 970 – 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(2.4656)
= $11.77
February 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1196 + 0.0030 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(5.4298)
= $228.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1196 + 0.0030 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(4.8089)
= $122.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 197.30% per annum.
- VST price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $139.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.59 (7.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025
a = 7.7992
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1235) – 1
= 63.92%
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7992 + -0.0016 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(5.3461)
= $209.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7992 + -0.0016 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(4.8519)
= $127.99
May 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7992 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(5.0507)
= $156.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7992 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(4.5565)
= $95.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.07% per annum.
- VST price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.