Stock Price Trends

Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (PEG)

The Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) is a publicly traded diversified energy company headquartered in Newark, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 111.58% per annum.
  • PEG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $74.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.03 (6.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.63% per annum.
  • PEG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: June 11, 2024

a = 0.6652

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0208

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 111.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0208) – 1
= 8.68%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6652 + 0.0021 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.0639)
= $58.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6652 + 0.0021 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(3.9807)
= $53.55

June 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6652 + 0.0021 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.3657)
= $78.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6652 + 0.0021 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.2825)
= $72.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 111.58% per annum.
  • PEG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $74.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.03 (6.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 3.6781

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0111

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.53%

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6781 + 0.0004 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.3121)
= $74.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6781 + 0.0004 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.2678)
= $71.37

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6781 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.3394)
= $76.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6781 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.2951)
= $73.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.63% per annum.
  • PEG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.