UNITIL Corporation (UTL)
Unitil Corporation, a utility holding company, is engaged in the distribution of electricity and natural gas. The company is headquartered in Hampton, New Hampshire.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.09% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $60.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.08% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.90 (6.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UTL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2020
End date: June 22, 2023
a = 3.4883
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0883
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0883) – 1
= 42.36%
June 17, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4883 + 0.0004 × 327 + 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(3.7830)
= $43.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4883 + 0.0004 × 327 – 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(3.4298)
= $30.87
June 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4883 + 0.0004 × 1,427 + 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(4.1804)
= $65.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4883 + 0.0004 × 1,427 – 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(3.8272)
= $45.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.09% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $60.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 25, 2022
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.9123
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0597
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0597) – 1
= 26.97%
February 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y652)
= Exp(a + b × X652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9123 + 0.0000 × 945 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(4.0297)
= $56.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y652)
= Exp(a + b × X652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9123 + 0.0000 × 945 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(3.7909)
= $44.30
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9123 + 0.0000 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(4.0279)
= $56.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9123 + 0.0000 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(3.7891)
= $44.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.08% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.90 (6.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.