UNITIL Corporation (UTL)
Unitil Corporation, a utility holding company, is engaged in the distribution of electricity and natural gas. The company is headquartered in Hampton, New Hampshire.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.73% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $57.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.88 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.88% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UTL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: December 11, 2024
a = 2.9674
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0433
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.90%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9674 + 0.0007 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(3.8545)
= $47.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9674 + 0.0007 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(3.6813)
= $39.70
December 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9674 + 0.0007 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.1790)
= $65.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9674 + 0.0007 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.0058)
= $54.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.73% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $57.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.88 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: April 11, 2025
a = 4.4626
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.53%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4626 + -0.0003 × 1,530 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.1407)
= $62.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4626 + -0.0003 × 1,530 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.0050)
= $54.87
April 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4626 + -0.0003 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.0722)
= $58.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4626 + -0.0003 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.9365)
= $51.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.88% per annum.
- UTL price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.