Stock Price Trends

FirstEnergy Corporation (FE)

FirstEnergy Corp is an electric utility headquartered in Akron, Ohio. Its subsidiaries and affiliates are involved in the distribution, transmission, and generation of electricity, as well as energy management and other energy-related services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.69% per annum.
  • FE price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $38.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $31.98 (45.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.43% per annum.
  • FE price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 21, 2020
End date: June 1, 2022

a = 2.8581

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0483

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.30%

July 21, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8581 + 0.0008 × 397 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.2786)
= $26.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8581 + 0.0008 × 397 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.0855)
= $21.88

June 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8581 + 0.0008 × 1,077 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.8334)
= $46.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8581 + 0.0008 × 1,077 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.6403)
= $38.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.69% per annum.
  • FE price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $38.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $31.98 (45.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 3.5135

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0591

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0591) – 1
= 26.68%

April 21, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y462)
= Exp(a + b × X462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5135 + 0.0001 × 671 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.6760)
= $39.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y462)
= Exp(a + b × X462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5135 + 0.0001 × 671 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.4394)
= $31.17

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5135 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.7519)
= $42.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5135 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.5154)
= $33.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.43% per annum.
  • FE price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.