FirstEnergy Corporation (FE)
FirstEnergy Corp is an electric utility headquartered in Akron, Ohio. Its subsidiaries and affiliates are involved in the distribution, transmission, and generation of electricity, as well as energy management and other energy-related services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.80% per annum.
- FE price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $41.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.42% per annum.
- FE price at the close of November 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 2.5526
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.29%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5526 + 0.0007 × 1,416 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.5621)
= $35.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5526 + 0.0007 × 1,416 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.4462)
= $31.38
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5526 + 0.0007 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.8336)
= $46.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5526 + 0.0007 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.7176)
= $41.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.80% per annum.
- FE price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $41.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 4.9581
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0139
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0139) – 1
= 5.72%
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9581 + -0.0007 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(3.8240)
= $45.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9581 + -0.0007 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(3.7684)
= $43.31
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9581 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(3.7798)
= $43.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9581 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(3.7242)
= $41.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.42% per annum.
- FE price at the close of November 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.