FirstEnergy Corporation (FE)
FirstEnergy Corp is an electric utility headquartered in Akron, Ohio. Its subsidiaries and affiliates are involved in the distribution, transmission, and generation of electricity, as well as energy management and other energy-related services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.75% per annum.
- FE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $40.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.32% per annum.
- FE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8637
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0234
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0234) – 1
= 9.80%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8637 + 0.0004 × 1,481 + 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(3.5735)
= $35.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8637 + 0.0004 × 1,481 – 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(3.4800)
= $32.46
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8637 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(3.7279)
= $41.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8637 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(3.6345)
= $37.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.75% per annum.
- FE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $40.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 28, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.0687
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0068
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0068) – 1
= 2.78%
June 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0687 + 0.0020 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(3.6522)
= $38.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0687 + 0.0020 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(3.6248)
= $37.52
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0687 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(3.7058)
= $40.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0687 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(3.6784)
= $39.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.32% per annum.
- FE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.