FirstEnergy Corporation (FE)
FirstEnergy Corp is an electric utility headquartered in Akron, Ohio. Its subsidiaries and affiliates are involved in the distribution, transmission, and generation of electricity, as well as energy management and other energy-related services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.46% per annum.
- FE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $42.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.89 (12.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.90% per annum.
- FE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.32 (0.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2021
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 3.6088
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.06%
October 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6088 + 0.0000 × 539 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.6909)
= $40.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6088 + 0.0000 × 539 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.4834)
= $32.57
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6088 + 0.0000 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.6541)
= $38.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6088 + 0.0000 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.4467)
= $31.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.46% per annum.
- FE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $42.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.89 (12.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: December 5, 2024
a = 2.8002
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0319
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0319) – 1
= 13.63%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8002 + 0.0006 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.5319)
= $34.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8002 + 0.0006 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.4041)
= $30.09
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8002 + 0.0006 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.8088)
= $45.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8002 + 0.0006 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.6810)
= $39.69
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.90% per annum.
- FE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.32 (0.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.