Stock Price Trends

American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP)

American Electric Power (AEP) is a major investor-owned electric utility in the United States, delivering electricity to more than five million customers in 11 states.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.45% per annum.
  • AEP price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $107.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.18% per annum.
  • AEP price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 3.4340

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0428

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0428) – 1
= 18.67%

August 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4340 + 0.0007 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.3386)
= $76.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4340 + 0.0007 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.1674)
= $64.55

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4340 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.7714)
= $118.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4340 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.6002)
= $99.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.45% per annum.
  • AEP price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $107.48 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 11, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 2.3208

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0264

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0264) – 1
= 11.14%

December 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3208 + 0.0013 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(4.5682)
= $96.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3208 + 0.0013 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(4.4626)
= $86.71

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3208 + 0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(4.7604)
= $116.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3208 + 0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(4.6548)
= $105.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.18% per annum.
  • AEP price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.