MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
MGE Energy, Inc. is a prominent utility holding company based in Madison, Wisconsin, focused on providing reliable energy solutions to its customers. With a diverse portfolio that includes electric and natural gas services, MGE Energy is committed to sustainable practices and reducing its carbon footprint through investments in renewable energy sources. The company's strong operational performance and strategic initiatives position it well for future growth and stability in the energy sector, making it an attractive option for institutional investors seeking exposure to the utility industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.87% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2025 was $81.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.22% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.20%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2025
End date: November 20, 2025
a = 5.1024
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 6.99%
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1024 + -0.0004 × 1,550 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.5512)
= $94.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1024 + -0.0004 × 1,550 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.4836)
= $88.55
November 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1024 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.4482)
= $85.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1024 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.3806)
= $79.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.87% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2025 was $81.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2025
End date: November 20, 2025
a = 4.5905
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0149
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0149) – 1
= 6.15%
July 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5905 + -0.0001 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.4672)
= $87.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5905 + -0.0001 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.4075)
= $82.06
November 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5905 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.4568)
= $86.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5905 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.3972)
= $81.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.22% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of November 20, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.20%).