MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
MGE Energy, Inc., is a utility holding company primarily in Wisconsin. The company is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.37% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $92.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.89% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 3.3215
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0658
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0658) – 1
= 30.12%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3215 + 0.0007 × 1,210 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.3068)
= $74.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3215 + 0.0007 × 1,210 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.0435)
= $57.03
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3215 + 0.0007 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.7167)
= $111.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3215 + 0.0007 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.4534)
= $85.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.37% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $92.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: May 6, 2025
a = 5.7710
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.36%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7710 + -0.0007 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.6765)
= $107.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7710 + -0.0007 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5250)
= $92.30
May 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7710 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5476)
= $94.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7710 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.3961)
= $81.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.89% per annum.
- MGEE price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.