Stock Price Trends

PPL Corporation (PPL)

PPL Corporation is an energy company headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania, United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.23% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $29.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 195.06% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 2.2796

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0311

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0311) – 1
= 13.25%

August 16, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2796 + 0.0006 × 1,479 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(3.2210)
= $25.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2796 + 0.0006 × 1,479 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(3.0965)
= $22.12

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2796 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(3.4261)
= $30.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2796 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(3.3016)
= $27.16

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.23% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $29.44 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -2.0306

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0084

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 195.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0084) – 1
= 3.43%

July 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0306 + 0.0030 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(3.3192)
= $27.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0306 + 0.0030 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(3.2855)
= $26.72

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0306 + 0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(3.3933)
= $29.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0306 + 0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(3.3596)
= $28.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 195.06% per annum.
  • PPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.