Stock Price Trends

Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS)

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures and services the ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the manufacture of semiconductor chips in the United States, Europe and Asia. The company is headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.05% per annum.
  • ACLS price at the close of August 25, 2025 was $80.38 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.21 (19.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 353.07% per annum.
  • ACLS price at the close of August 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACLS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: June 24, 2025

a = 6.9156

b = -0.0016

s = 0.1426

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1426) – 1
= 76.88%

May 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9156 + -0.0016 × 1,002 + 2 × 0.1426)
= Exp(5.5572)
= $259.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9156 + -0.0016 × 1,002 – 2 × 0.1426)
= Exp(4.9869)
= $146.48

June 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9156 + -0.0016 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.1426)
= Exp(4.3090)
= $74.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9156 + -0.0016 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.1426)
= Exp(3.7386)
= $42.04

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.05% per annum.
  • ACLS price at the close of August 25, 2025 was $80.38 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.21 (19.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: August 25, 2025

a = -3.1057

b = 0.0041

s = 0.0644

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 353.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0644) – 1
= 29.39%

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1057 + 0.0041 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.9566)
= $52.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1057 + 0.0041 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.6989)
= $40.40

August 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1057 + 0.0041 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(4.5775)
= $97.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1057 + 0.0041 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(4.3198)
= $75.18

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 353.07% per annum.
  • ACLS price at the close of August 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.