Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS)
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures and services the ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the manufacture of semiconductor chips in the United States, Europe and Asia. The company is headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.37% per annum.
- ACLS price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $113.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,102.96% per annum.
- ACLS price at the close of May 17, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.21 (2.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACLS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 8.0959
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0691
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.82%
June 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0959 + -0.0019 × 1,479 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.3956)
= $220.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0959 + -0.0019 × 1,479 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.1193)
= $167.23
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0959 + -0.0019 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(4.7508)
= $115.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0959 + -0.0019 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(4.4745)
= $87.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.37% per annum.
- ACLS price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $113.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = -10.6561
b = 0.0085
s = 0.0200
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0085) – 1
= 2,102.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0200) – 1
= 8.33%
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.6561 + 0.0085 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.5917)
= $98.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.6561 + 0.0085 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.5117)
= $91.07
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.6561 + 0.0085 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.7781)
= $118.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.6561 + 0.0085 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.6981)
= $109.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,102.96% per annum.
- ACLS price at the close of May 17, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.21 (2.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.