Stock Price Trends

Cohu Inc (COHU)

Cohu, Inc. is engaged in semiconductor inspection and test equipment and printed circuit board (PCB) test equipment businesses in China, the United States, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Poway, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.21% per annum.
  • COHU price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $33.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.46 (76.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.75% per annum.
  • COHU price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COHU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 3, 2020
End date: October 20, 2022

a = 4.1535

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0887

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0887) – 1
= 42.59%

December 3, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y345)
= Exp(a + b × X345 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1535 + -0.0008 × 498 + 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(3.9527)
= $52.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y345)
= Exp(a + b × X345 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1535 + -0.0008 × 498 – 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(3.5979)
= $36.52

October 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1535 + -0.0008 × 1,184 + 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(3.4318)
= $30.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1535 + -0.0008 × 1,184 – 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(3.0770)
= $21.69

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.21% per annum.
  • COHU price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $33.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.46 (76.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 4, 2021
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 3.4694

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1124

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1124) – 1
= 56.77%

May 4, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4694 + 0.0000 × 650 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(3.7075)
= $40.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4694 + 0.0000 × 650 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(3.2579)
= $25.99

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4694 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(3.7314)
= $41.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4694 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1124)
= Exp(3.2818)
= $26.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.75% per annum.
  • COHU price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.