Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 88.93% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $14.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 203.11% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AESI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 7.3148
b = -0.0060
s = 0.0641
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0641) – 1
= 29.25%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y465)
= Exp(a + b × X465 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3148 + -0.0060 × 678 + 2 × 0.0641)
= Exp(3.3554)
= $28.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y465)
= Exp(a + b × X465 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3148 + -0.0060 × 678 – 2 × 0.0641)
= Exp(3.0989)
= $22.17
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3148 + -0.0060 × 782 + 2 × 0.0641)
= Exp(2.7284)
= $15.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3148 + -0.0060 × 782 – 2 × 0.0641)
= Exp(2.4719)
= $11.84
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 88.93% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $14.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 0.2812
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0167
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 203.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0167) – 1
= 6.92%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y524)
= Exp(a + b × X524 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2812 + 0.0030 × 763 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.6328)
= $13.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y524)
= Exp(a + b × X524 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2812 + 0.0030 × 763 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.5658)
= $13.01
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2812 + 0.0030 × 782 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.6905)
= $14.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2812 + 0.0030 × 782 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.6235)
= $13.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 203.11% per annum.
- AESI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.