Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT)
Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. provides hydraulic fracturing and cabling services and related goods to onshore oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in North America. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.16% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $22.28 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.21 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.40% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LBRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: June 12, 2024
a = 0.5348
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0698
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0698) – 1
= 32.21%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5348 + 0.0015 × 1,326 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(2.6479)
= $14.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5348 + 0.0015 × 1,326 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(2.3687)
= $10.68
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5348 + 0.0015 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(3.3281)
= $27.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5348 + 0.0015 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(3.0489)
= $21.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.16% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $22.28 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.21 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.7534
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0615
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.91%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7534 + 0.0007 × 1,502 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.0002)
= $20.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7534 + 0.0007 × 1,502 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.7541)
= $15.71
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7534 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.2426)
= $25.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7534 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.9965)
= $20.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.40% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.