Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT)
Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. provides hydraulic fracturing and cabling services and related goods to onshore oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in North America. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.00% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $12.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (13.18%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.66% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LBRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: December 27, 2024
a = 4.5347
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.92%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y987)
= Exp(a + b × X987 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5347 + -0.0010 × 1,434 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(3.2368)
= $25.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y987)
= Exp(a + b × X987 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5347 + -0.0010 × 1,434 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(3.0305)
= $20.71
December 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5347 + -0.0010 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.9740)
= $19.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5347 + -0.0010 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.7677)
= $15.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.00% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $12.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (13.18%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 3, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 13.7659
b = -0.0062
s = 0.0831
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0062) – 1
= -89.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0831) – 1
= 39.41%
January 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7659 + -0.0062 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.3029)
= $27.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7659 + -0.0062 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(2.9707)
= $19.51
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7659 + -0.0062 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(2.5881)
= $13.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7659 + -0.0062 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(2.2559)
= $9.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.66% per annum.
- LBRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.