Stock Price Trends

Innovex International, Inc (INVX)

Innovex International, Inc. designs, manufactures, installs, rents, and sells a suite of well-centric engineered products to oil and gas industries globally. The company is headquartered in Humble, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.33% per annum.
  • INVX price at the close of September 3, 2025 was $16.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.20 (23.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.74% per annum.
  • INVX price at the close of September 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: January 13, 2025

a = 4.3738

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0874

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0874) – 1
= 41.85%

January 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y588)
= Exp(a + b × X588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3738 + -0.0011 × 854 + 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.6349)
= $37.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y588)
= Exp(a + b × X588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3738 + -0.0011 × 854 – 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(3.2853)
= $26.72

January 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3738 + -0.0011 × 1,592 + 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(2.8453)
= $17.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3738 + -0.0011 × 1,592 – 2 × 0.0874)
= Exp(2.4957)
= $12.13

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.33% per annum.
  • INVX price at the close of September 3, 2025 was $16.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.20 (23.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: September 3, 2025

a = 2.4673

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0741

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0741) – 1
= 34.49%

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4673 + 0.0002 × 1,427 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(2.8703)
= $17.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4673 + 0.0002 × 1,427 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(2.5740)
= $13.12

September 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4673 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(2.9414)
= $18.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4673 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(2.6451)
= $14.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.74% per annum.
  • INVX price at the close of September 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.