Stock Price Trends

Amphenol Corporation (APH)

Amphenol Corporation is a major producer of electronic and fiber optic connectors, cable and interconnect systems such as coaxial cables. Amphenol is a portmanteau from the corporation's original name, American Phenolic Corp.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.04% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $92.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 409.92% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of June 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (0.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 2.7016

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0721

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0721) – 1
= 33.44%

September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y568)
= Exp(a + b × X568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7016 + 0.0009 × 822 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.6202)
= $37.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y568)
= Exp(a + b × X568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7016 + 0.0009 × 822 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.3317)
= $27.99

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7016 + 0.0009 × 1,711 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.4577)
= $86.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7016 + 0.0009 × 1,711 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.1692)
= $64.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.04% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $92.49 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 24, 2025
End date: June 12, 2025

a = -3.5828

b = 0.0045

s = 0.0149

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0045) – 1
= 409.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0149) – 1
= 6.13%

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5828 + 0.0045 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.3647)
= $78.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5828 + 0.0045 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.3052)
= $74.08

June 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5828 + 0.0045 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.5834)
= $97.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5828 + 0.0045 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.5239)
= $92.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 409.92% per annum.
  • APH price at the close of June 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (0.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.