Stock Price Trends

Littelfuse Inc (LFUS)

Littelfuse, Inc. manufactures and sells circuit protection, power control, and sensing products in Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and Europe. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.73% per annum.
  • LFUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $179.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.36 (6.45%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.45% per annum.
  • LFUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LFUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 5, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.5851

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0958

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.71%

January 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5851 + -0.0001 × 250 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.7578)
= $316.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5851 + -0.0001 × 250 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.3745)
= $215.84

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5851 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.6383)
= $280.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5851 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.2550)
= $191.53

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.73% per annum.
  • LFUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $179.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.36 (6.45%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 19, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 8.0147

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0861

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0861) – 1
= 41.10%

August 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0147 + -0.0015 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.8069)
= $332.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0147 + -0.0015 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.4626)
= $235.71

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0147 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.4239)
= $226.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0147 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.0796)
= $160.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.45% per annum.
  • LFUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.