Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy Inc. is a leading American energy technology company based in Fremont, California, specializing in the development and manufacture of innovative, software-driven energy solutions. The company's advanced microinverter technology enhances solar generation efficiency and is complemented by cutting-edge home energy storage systems, enabling homeowners to optimize energy usage and reduce reliance on the grid. Additionally, Enphase provides comprehensive monitoring and control interfaces, empowering customers with real-time insights into their energy consumption and production. As a key player in the renewable energy sector, Enphase is positioned to play a pivotal role in the transition to sustainable energy systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.24% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 19, 2026 was $44.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.38 (8.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 624.10% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 19, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.61 (3.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: February 3, 2026
a = 6.6521
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1784
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1784) – 1
= 104.14%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y340)
= Exp(a + b × X340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6521 + -0.0018 × 492 + 2 × 0.1784)
= Exp(6.1213)
= $455.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y340)
= Exp(a + b × X340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6521 + -0.0018 × 492 – 2 × 0.1784)
= Exp(5.4077)
= $223.11
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6521 + -0.0018 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.1784)
= Exp(3.7993)
= $44.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6521 + -0.0018 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.1784)
= Exp(3.0857)
= $21.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.24% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 19, 2026 was $44.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.38 (8.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 12, 2025
End date: March 2, 2026
a = -5.9210
b = 0.0054
s = 0.0665
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0054) – 1
= 624.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0665) – 1
= 30.46%
November 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9210 + 0.0054 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.4111)
= $30.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9210 + 0.0054 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.1452)
= $23.22
March 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9210 + 0.0054 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(4.0077)
= $55.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.9210 + 0.0054 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.7418)
= $42.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 624.10% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 19, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.61 (3.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.