Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy Inc. is a leading American energy technology company based in Fremont, California, specializing in the development and manufacture of innovative, software-driven energy solutions. The company's advanced microinverter technology enhances solar generation efficiency and is complemented by cutting-edge home energy storage systems, enabling homeowners to optimize energy usage and reduce reliance on the grid. Additionally, Enphase provides comprehensive monitoring and control interfaces, empowering customers with real-time insights into their energy consumption and production. As a key player in the renewable energy sector, Enphase is positioned to play a pivotal role in the transition to sustainable energy systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.28% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 2, 2026 was $36.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 449.13% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2022
End date: February 2, 2026
a = 6.7395
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1783
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1783) – 1
= 104.09%
July 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7395 + -0.0018 × 540 + 2 × 0.1783)
= Exp(6.1208)
= $455.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7395 + -0.0018 × 540 – 2 × 0.1783)
= Exp(5.4074)
= $223.05
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7395 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1783)
= Exp(3.7997)
= $44.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7395 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1783)
= Exp(3.0863)
= $21.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.28% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 2, 2026 was $36.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2025
End date: February 2, 2026
a = -4.8414
b = 0.0047
s = 0.0381
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 449.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.45%
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8414 + 0.0047 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.3773)
= $29.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8414 + 0.0047 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.2250)
= $25.15
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8414 + 0.0047 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.7506)
= $42.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8414 + 0.0047 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.5983)
= $36.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 449.13% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.