Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.97% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $111.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.66 (8.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.09% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: February 8, 2024
a = 8.5775
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1367) – 1
= 72.81%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5775 + -0.0023 × 1,185 + 2 × 0.1367)
= Exp(6.1135)
= $451.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y818)
= Exp(a + b × X818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5775 + -0.0023 × 1,185 – 2 × 0.1367)
= Exp(5.5665)
= $261.52
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5775 + -0.0023 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.1367)
= Exp(4.8175)
= $123.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5775 + -0.0023 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.1367)
= Exp(4.2705)
= $71.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.97% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $111.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.66 (8.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 1.6846
b = 0.0017
s = 0.1159
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 89.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1159) – 1
= 58.98%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6846 + 0.0017 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.7701)
= $117.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6846 + 0.0017 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.3065)
= $74.18
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6846 + 0.0017 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(5.0843)
= $161.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6846 + 0.0017 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.6207)
= $101.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.09% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.