Stock Price Trends

SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG)

SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. designs, develops and sells optimized direct current (DC) inverter systems for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations worldwide. The company is headquartered in Herzliya, Israel.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.67% per annum.
  • SEDG price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $48.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.40% per annum.
  • SEDG price at the close of May 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SEDG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: May 24, 2024

a = 12.0469

b = -0.0045

s = 0.1821

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1821) – 1
= 107.20%

January 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,344 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0045 × 1,344 + 2 × 0.1821)
= Exp(6.3604)
= $578.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,344 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0045 × 1,344 – 2 × 0.1821)
= Exp(5.6319)
= $279.19

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0045 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1821)
= Exp(4.2039)
= $66.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0045 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1821)
= Exp(3.4754)
= $32.31

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.67% per annum.
  • SEDG price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $48.02 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: May 24, 2024

a = 7.7507

b = -0.0020

s = 0.1060

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1060) – 1
= 52.79%

October 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7507 + -0.0020 × 1,606 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.6960)
= $109.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7507 + -0.0020 × 1,606 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.2721)
= $71.67

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7507 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.2546)
= $70.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7507 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(3.8307)
= $46.10

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.40% per annum.
  • SEDG price at the close of May 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.