Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
Lam Research Corporation is an American corporation that engages in the design, manufacture, marketing, and service of semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. Its products are used primarily in front-end wafer processing, which involves the steps that create the active components of semiconductor devices (transistors, capacitors) and their wiring (interconnects). The company also builds equipment for back-end wafer-level packaging (WLP), and for related manufacturing markets such as for microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The company is headquartered in Fremont, California, in the Silicon Valley.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 78.02% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $925.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 146.50% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.9721
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0742
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0742) – 1
= 34.55%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y853)
= Exp(a + b × X853 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9721 + 0.0016 × 1,235 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(6.0717)
= $433.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y853)
= Exp(a + b × X853 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9721 + 0.0016 × 1,235 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(5.7750)
= $322.14
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9721 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(7.0024)
= $1,099.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9721 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(6.7056)
= $816.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 78.02% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $925.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 2.4199
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0522
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 146.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.20%
September 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4199 + 0.0025 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.4889)
= $657.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4199 + 0.0025 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.2802)
= $533.90
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4199 + 0.0025 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(7.0326)
= $1,133.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4199 + 0.0025 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(6.8240)
= $919.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 146.50% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.