Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)
Onto Innovation Inc. is dedicated to the design, development, manufacture and support of process control tools that perform macrodefect inspection and metrology, lithography systems, and process control analytical software worldwide. The company is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 104.48% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $188.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.56 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.32% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.76 (2.46%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ONTO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: July 17, 2024
a = 1.8663
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0729
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 104.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.85%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8663 + 0.0020 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.2619)
= $70.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8663 + 0.0020 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.9703)
= $53.00
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8663 + 0.0020 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.5690)
= $262.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8663 + 0.0020 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.2775)
= $195.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 104.48% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $188.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.56 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 7.1630
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.25%
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1630 + -0.0010 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.5262)
= $251.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1630 + -0.0010 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.3418)
= $208.88
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1630 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.4500)
= $232.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1630 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.2656)
= $193.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.32% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.76 (2.46%).