Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)
Onto Innovation Inc. is dedicated to the design, development, manufacture and support of process control tools that perform macrodefect inspection and metrology, lithography systems, and process control analytical software worldwide. The company is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 99.77% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $224.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.66 (0.29%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8,052.32% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ONTO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 1.8077
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0723
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0723) – 1
= 33.52%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8077 + 0.0019 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.2671)
= $71.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8077 + 0.0019 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(3.9780)
= $53.41
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8077 + 0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(5.4103)
= $223.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8077 + 0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(5.1212)
= $167.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 99.77% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $224.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.66 (0.29%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 19, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = -16.6176
b = 0.0121
s = 0.0243
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0121) – 1
= 8,052.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.19%
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.6176 + 0.0121 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.1701)
= $175.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.6176 + 0.0121 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.0731)
= $159.67
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.6176 + 0.0121 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.4233)
= $226.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.6176 + 0.0121 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.3263)
= $205.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8,052.32% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.