Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)
Onto Innovation Inc. is dedicated to the design, development, manufacture and support of process control tools that perform macrodefect inspection and metrology, lithography systems, and process control analytical software worldwide. The company is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.40% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of September 16, 2025 was $120.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.44% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of September 16, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.61 (3.97%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ONTO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 8.1518
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1292) – 1
= 67.67%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1518 + -0.0020 × 1,327 + 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(5.7873)
= $326.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1518 + -0.0020 × 1,327 – 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(5.2705)
= $194.51
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1518 + -0.0020 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(4.8109)
= $122.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1518 + -0.0020 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1292)
= Exp(4.2941)
= $73.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.40% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of September 16, 2025 was $120.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2025
End date: September 15, 2025
a = 2.8687
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.53%
May 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8687 + 0.0010 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.6249)
= $101.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8687 + 0.0010 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.4634)
= $86.78
September 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8687 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.7524)
= $115.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8687 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.5909)
= $98.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.44% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of September 16, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.61 (3.97%).