KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
KLA Corporation is a capital equipment company based in Milpitas, California. It supplies process control and yield management systems for the semiconductor industry and other related nanoelectronics industries. The company's products and services are intended for all phases of wafer, reticle, integrated circuit (IC) and packaging production, from research and development to final volume manufacturing.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 75.10% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $706.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.61% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.51 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.7453
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0605
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0605) – 1
= 27.39%
February 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7453 + 0.0015 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(6.0059)
= $405.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7453 + 0.0015 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(5.7638)
= $318.55
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7453 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(6.6658)
= $785.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7453 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(6.4237)
= $616.30
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 75.10% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $706.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 8.8560
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0253
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0253) – 1
= 10.64%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8560 + -0.0013 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(6.6217)
= $751.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8560 + -0.0013 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(6.5206)
= $678.97
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8560 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(6.5493)
= $698.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8560 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(6.4482)
= $631.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.61% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.51 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.