Fabrinet (FN)
Fabrinet offers optical packaging and precision electronic, electromechanical and optical manufacturing services in North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe. The company is headquartered in George Town, the Cayman Islands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 129.53% per annum.
- FN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $216.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.68 (14.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.27% per annum.
- FN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: March 15, 2024
a = 1.5437
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0852
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 129.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0852) – 1
= 40.60%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5437 + 0.0023 × 1,328 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.7370)
= $114.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5437 + 0.0023 × 1,328 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.3963)
= $81.15
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5437 + 0.0023 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(5.5702)
= $262.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5437 + 0.0023 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(5.2294)
= $186.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 129.53% per annum.
- FN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $216.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.68 (14.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 3.6573
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0825
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.07%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6573 + 0.0009 × 1,488 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.2308)
= $186.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6573 + 0.0009 × 1,488 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.9010)
= $134.42
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6573 + 0.0009 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.4816)
= $240.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6573 + 0.0009 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.1518)
= $172.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.27% per annum.
- FN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.