Jabil Circuit Inc (JBL)
Jabil Inc. provides global manufacturing solutions and services. The company is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.13% per annum.
- JBL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $110.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.45% per annum.
- JBL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JBL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.8679
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0483
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -47.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.31%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8679 + -0.0017 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(5.0698)
= $159.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8679 + -0.0017 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.8766)
= $131.18
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8679 + -0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.7765)
= $118.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8679 + -0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.5833)
= $97.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.13% per annum.
- JBL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $110.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 19, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.9900
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0278
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0278) – 1
= 11.77%
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9900 + -0.0007 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.8410)
= $126.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9900 + -0.0007 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.7297)
= $113.26
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9900 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.7734)
= $118.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9900 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.6621)
= $105.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.45% per annum.
- JBL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.