IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP)
IPG Photonics is a manufacturer of fiber lasers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.46% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $85.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $38.49 (81.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.54% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IPGP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2020
End date: January 3, 2023
a = 6.1965
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1240
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1240) – 1
= 64.19%
October 12, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1965 + -0.0014 × 444 + 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(5.8136)
= $334.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1965 + -0.0014 × 444 – 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(5.3178)
= $203.94
January 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1965 + -0.0014 × 1,257 + 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(4.6586)
= $105.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1965 + -0.0014 × 1,257 – 2 × 0.1240)
= Exp(4.1627)
= $64.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.46% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $85.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $38.49 (81.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.7818
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1236
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1236) – 1
= 63.97%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7818 + -0.0001 × 949 + 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(4.9084)
= $135.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7818 + -0.0001 × 949 – 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(4.4139)
= $82.59
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7818 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(4.7969)
= $121.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7818 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(4.3024)
= $73.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.54% per annum.
- IPGP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.