Stock Price Trends

Plexus Corp (PLXS)

Plexus Corp. The company is headquartered in Neenah, Wisconsin.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.46% per annum.
  • PLXS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $129.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.10 (58.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.33% per annum.
  • PLXS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.96 (9.22%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLXS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 5, 2021
End date: July 26, 2022

a = 4.6127

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0622

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0622) – 1
= 28.25%

January 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y363)
= Exp(a + b × X363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6127 + -0.0002 × 526 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(4.6410)
= $103.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y363)
= Exp(a + b × X363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6127 + -0.0002 × 526 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(4.3922)
= $80.82

July 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y754)
= Exp(a + b × X754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6127 + -0.0002 × 1,093 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(4.5373)
= $93.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y754)
= Exp(a + b × X754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6127 + -0.0002 × 1,093 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(4.2885)
= $72.86

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.46% per annum.
  • PLXS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $129.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.10 (58.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 5, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 4.3668

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0760

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0760) – 1
= 35.52%

January 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y363)
= Exp(a + b × X363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0001 × 526 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(4.5936)
= $98.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y363)
= Exp(a + b × X363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0001 × 526 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(4.2896)
= $72.94

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(4.7782)
= $118.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(4.4742)
= $87.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.33% per annum.
  • PLXS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.96 (9.22%).