TE Connectivity Ltd (TEL)
TE Connectivity is an American Swiss-domiciled technology company that designs and manufactures connectors and sensors for several industries, such as automotive, industrial equipment, data communication systems, aerospace, defense, medical, oil and gas, consumer electronics and energy.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.67% per annum.
- TEL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $154.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.45 (6.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.86% per annum.
- TEL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2021
End date: January 23, 2024
a = 4.8977
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0819
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0819) – 1
= 38.76%
January 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8977 + 0.0000 × 529 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(5.0371)
= $154.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8977 + 0.0000 × 529 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(4.7095)
= $111.00
January 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8977 + 0.0000 × 1,642 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(4.9858)
= $146.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8977 + 0.0000 × 1,642 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(4.6582)
= $105.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.67% per annum.
- TEL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $154.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.45 (6.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.2643
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.11%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2643 + 0.0004 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.8232)
= $124.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2643 + 0.0004 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.6317)
= $102.69
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2643 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.0967)
= $163.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2643 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.9052)
= $134.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.86% per annum.
- TEL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.