Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc (RYAN)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.65% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of March 6, 2026 was $39.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.81 (6.60%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.51% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of March 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RYAN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2025
End date: February 12, 2026
a = 5.8865
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0489
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0489) – 1
= 21.60%
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8865 + -0.0012 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.3950)
= $81.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8865 + -0.0012 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(4.1994)
= $66.65
February 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8865 + -0.0012 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(3.9723)
= $53.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8865 + -0.0012 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(3.7767)
= $43.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.65% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of March 6, 2026 was $39.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.81 (6.60%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2025
End date: March 6, 2026
a = 10.0102
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0423
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.45%
November 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0102 + -0.0037 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.1710)
= $64.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0102 + -0.0037 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.0017)
= $54.69
March 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0102 + -0.0037 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(3.7741)
= $43.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0102 + -0.0037 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(3.6048)
= $36.77
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.51% per annum.
- RYAN price at the close of March 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.