Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is an American global insurance brokerage and risk management services firm headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $273.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.71% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AJG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: July 22, 2024
a = 4.5256
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.43%
April 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5256 + 0.0006 × 622 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.9709)
= $144.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5256 + 0.0006 × 622 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.7934)
= $120.71
July 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5256 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.6594)
= $286.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5256 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.4818)
= $240.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $273.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8221
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0158
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0158) – 1
= 6.53%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8221 + 0.0015 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(5.4846)
= $240.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8221 + 0.0015 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(5.4214)
= $226.19
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8221 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(5.6452)
= $282.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8221 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(5.5819)
= $265.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.71% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.