# Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW)

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## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.53% per annum.
• WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was \$275.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$39.40 (12.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.15% per annum.
• WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WTW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2023
End date: April 5, 2024

a = 3.1820

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0346

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.53%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0346) – 1
= 14.85%

#### July 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,444 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.3395)
= \$208.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,444 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.2010)
= \$181.45

#### April 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.7053)
= \$300.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.5669)
= \$261.61

#### Description

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.53% per annum.
• WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was \$275.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$39.40 (12.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 30, 2023
End date: August 12, 2024

a = 4.8153

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0402

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.15%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.46%

#### October 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.5633)
= \$260.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.4023)
= \$221.92

#### August 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.6877)
= \$295.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.5268)
= \$251.33

#### Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.15% per annum.
• WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.