# Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW)

None

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.53% per annum.
- WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was $275.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.40 (12.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.15% per annum.
- WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of WTW price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2023

End date: April 5, 2024

a = 3.1820

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0346

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1

= 69.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0346) – 1

= 14.85%

#### July 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{995})

= Exp(a + b × X_{995} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,444 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,444 + 2 × 0.0346)

= Exp(5.3395)

= $208.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{995})

= Exp(a + b × X_{995} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,444 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,444 – 2 × 0.0346)

= Exp(5.2010)

= $181.45

#### April 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,169})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,169} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0346)

= Exp(5.7053)

= $300.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,169})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,169} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.1820 + 0.0014 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0346)

= Exp(5.5669)

= $261.61

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.53% per annum.
- WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was $275.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.40 (12.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 30, 2023

End date: August 12, 2024

a = 4.8153

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0402

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1

= 17.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1

= 17.46%

#### October 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,061})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,061} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0402)

= Exp(5.5633)

= $260.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,061})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,061} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0402)

= Exp(5.4023)

= $221.92

#### August 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0402)

= Exp(5.6877)

= $295.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8153 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0402)

= Exp(5.5268)

= $251.33

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.15% per annum.
- WTW price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.