Aon PLC (AON)
Aon plc is a multinational professional services firm that sells a range of financial risk-mitigation products, including insurance, pension administration, and health-insurance plans.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $323.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.35 (1.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.64% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.80 (4.46%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.1434
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0385
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0385) – 1
= 16.65%
April 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1434 + -0.0003 × 1,345 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.8839)
= $359.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1434 + -0.0003 × 1,345 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.7299)
= $307.95
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1434 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.7643)
= $318.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1434 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.6103)
= $273.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $323.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.35 (1.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.4824
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.63%
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4824 + 0.0007 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.6731)
= $290.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4824 + 0.0007 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.6089)
= $272.85
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4824 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.7333)
= $308.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4824 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.6691)
= $289.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.64% per annum.
- AON price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.80 (4.46%).