Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc (MMC)
Marsh McLennan (formerly known as Marsh & McLennan Companies) is a global professional services firm, headquartered in New York City with businesses in insurance brokerage, risk management, reinsurance services, talent management, investment advisory, and management consulting. Its four main operating companies are Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.66% per annum.
- MMC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $217.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $28.97 (15.33%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.49% per annum.
- MMC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MMC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 22, 2021
End date: April 19, 2023
a = 4.9225
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.06%
July 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9225 + 0.0001 × 724 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.1043)
= $164.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9225 + 0.0001 × 724 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.9215)
= $137.21
April 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9225 + 0.0001 × 1,360 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.1838)
= $178.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9225 + 0.0001 × 1,360 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.0009)
= $148.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.66% per annum.
- MMC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $217.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $28.97 (15.33%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5185
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.58%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5185 + 0.0005 × 1,015 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.0583)
= $157.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5185 + 0.0005 × 1,015 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.9222)
= $137.30
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5185 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.4343)
= $229.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5185 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.2982)
= $199.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.49% per annum.
- MMC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.