Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD)
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is a rapidly growing independent personal lines insurance agency headquartered in Westlake, Texas. As a portfolio company of Goosehead Financial, LLC, it specializes in offering tailored insurance solutions across the United States, leveraging a technology-driven platform to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. With a focus on expanding its franchise network, Goosehead aims to disrupt the traditional insurance marketplace by providing innovative products and unparalleled service, making it an attractive choice for both consumers and institutional investors.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.66% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of December 23, 2025 was $75.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.96 (18.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.74% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of December 23, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.95 (2.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GSHD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: July 23, 2025
a = 3.1343
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1766) – 1
= 102.68%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y344)
= Exp(a + b × X344 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1343 + 0.0010 × 501 + 2 × 0.1766)
= Exp(3.9656)
= $52.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y344)
= Exp(a + b × X344 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1343 + 0.0010 × 501 – 2 × 0.1766)
= Exp(3.2591)
= $26.03
July 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1343 + 0.0010 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.1766)
= Exp(5.0828)
= $161.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1343 + 0.0010 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.1766)
= Exp(4.3763)
= $79.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.66% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of December 23, 2025 was $75.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.96 (18.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2025
End date: November 28, 2025
a = 8.1274
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0642
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0642) – 1
= 29.27%
February 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1274 + -0.0022 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(4.9721)
= $144.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1274 + -0.0022 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(4.7154)
= $111.65
November 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1274 + -0.0022 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(4.3467)
= $77.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1274 + -0.0022 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(4.0899)
= $59.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.74% per annum.
- GSHD price at the close of December 23, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.95 (2.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.