Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)
Erie Indemnity Company serves as the administrative agent for underwriters on the Erie Insurance Exchange, facilitating the management and distribution of insurance products in the United States. Headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, the company plays a critical role in supporting the operations of the Erie Insurance Group, which provides a broad range of insurance products including property, casualty, and life insurance. With a strong reputation for customer service and community involvement, Erie Indemnity is well-positioned to capitalize on the steady demand for insurance solutions in a changing economic landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.40% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of December 22, 2025 was $286.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.29% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of December 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ERIE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2024
End date: December 22, 2025
a = 7.6301
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0579
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.05%
August 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6301 + -0.0011 × 1,330 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(6.3191)
= $555.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6301 + -0.0011 × 1,330 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(6.0876)
= $440.36
December 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6301 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(5.7881)
= $326.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6301 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(5.5566)
= $258.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.40% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of December 22, 2025 was $286.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 22, 2025
End date: December 22, 2025
a = 8.9226
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.56%
July 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9226 + -0.0018 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.9648)
= $389.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9226 + -0.0018 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.8376)
= $342.97
December 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9226 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.6883)
= $295.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9226 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.5612)
= $260.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.29% per annum.
- ERIE price at the close of December 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.